PATS VS. JETS IN RUBBER GAME

You get the feeling that it had to be this way. Even Rex Ryan seemed to be anticipating this Divisional Round matchup when last week he unfavorably compared Tom Brady's work ethic to Peyton Manning. Or maybe he was just putting his foot in his mouth. Or someone else's.

These teams not only split the season series, they've split their last 6 games. It makes sense when you consider how well their different strengths matchup. The Patriots pass first, ask questions later. The Jets run. The Pats have a young, sometimes shaky defense. The Jets have more experience, and are far sturdier. The Patriots keep their mouths shut. The Jets are a reality TV show.

I think the Patriots' ability to distribute the ball to multiple offensive weapons will allow them to regularly beat the Jets' defense. The Jets do have some exceptionally talented guys on defense, but Brady is the master at finding the weak spot, and hitting the open receiver.

However, I temper my optimism knowing that for many of the Pats' weapons, this will be their first postseason game. This past weekend, we saw playoff newcomers drop passes, fumble the ball, and generally fail to execute as they had in the regular season.

Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis have never played postseason football. Danny Woodhead has 1 career touch in the playoffs. Even Wes Welker has only 3 playoff games under his belt. The defensive side of the ball is hardly any better. McCourty, Chung, Spikes, Cunningham, and so on, are all newbies to this scene. And while veterans like Brady, Branch, and Wilfork might settle locker room nerves, it only takes one or two players making one or two mistakes to screw up an entire game (See: Pierre Woods, Super Bowl XLII).

The Jets actually bring more playoff experience, or at least have theirs distributed more evenly throughout their roster. Sanchez already has 4 games under his belt. Guys like LT, Braylon Edwards, Shonn Greene, Santonio Holmes, and so on, have all been in big games. And won them. That's something to keep in mind.

The health of Danny Woodhead is also something to keep in mind, as he made nothing but big plays in the 45-3 win a few weeks ago. We know that it was a concussion he suffered. We know that he's been practicing with a non-contact jersey.

The key to this game will be how the Patriots do against the Jets' rushing attack in the early stages. In that 45-3 win, the Jets ran for 152 yards, but most of those came when the game was essentially over. The Jets can run (148.4 yards per game, 4th in the NFL), and run well. The Pats have a depleted defensive line. It will be up to guys like Wilfork and Mayo to contain the running attack, and to limit rushes to 3 or 4 yards at the most.

It will also be up to Brady and the offense to hold onto the ball, and to score. The best way to stop an opponent from rushing is to build a lead.

I think the Patriots will be hurt by the Jets' RBs, but not killed. The Pats' offense will score enough to force Mark Sanchez to try to make plays, and we all know what happens next.

Patriots win 28-17.

WHO SHOULD YOU WANT THE PATRIOTS TO FACE?

It will be one of three teams. Either the Jets, Ravens, or Chiefs will come to Gillette Stadium in a little over a week. So as a Pats fan, who should you want the Patriots to face?

The Pats beat the Jets, they beat the Ravens, they haven't played the Chiefs. They also lost to the Jets, needed 73 minutes to barely beat the Ravens (at home), and they haven't played the Chiefs.

You're not going to get a cupcake game in the Divisional Round. Not only are you playing a fellow playoff team, but you're also playing a team that's already won a playoff game. So they must be pretty good.

Let's use the process of elimination, then.

The Ravens match-up the best against the Pats. They get a consistent 4 man pass rush, they don't have the stifling defense of the past, but they're still pretty good. All 4 of their losses were in close games (4 losses by a combined 16 points). They don't get overwhelmed by the Patriots' mystique. I'd rather not see the Ravens.

The Chiefs are an enigma. 10-6, in a weird division. They were 7-1 at home, 3-5 on the road. Their schedule is soft. The only playoff team they beat was Seattle. But they can run the ball with Charles and Jones. And when Cassel plays mistake-free football, they're tough to beat. This might be a fear of the unknown here, but I'd rather not face the Chiefs. There's also a tendency for ex-Belichick assistants to triumph in their first meeting against their old mentor. I'm not sure if that also applies to GMs.

Then there's the Jets. This team beat the Pats early in the season, were throttled by them late in the season, and limped into the playoffs. At the same time, they've got players with good playoff performances under their belt. They can rush the ball, and their defense isn't easy to move the ball against.

The Jets might be the best of these three teams. But it's about matchups in the playoffs. And I think the Patriots matchup very well against them. The Pats can do enough to slow the run to force Mark Sanchez to make bad throws. The Pats' offense can score, generate a lead, and force more throwing and less running.

I've got mixed feelings. I do security at the Stadium, and a playoff game against the Jets means a busy night and extra paperwork. But I'd also love the Patriots to end their season. To make them just a footnote (if you will) of the 2010 NFL season.

I actually do think the Chiefs would be the most favorable opponent. But I think I want the Jets to come here next Sunday. Eliminating a rival in a playoff game is sweet. Although you also risk losing to them, and having it hurt that much more. My brain wants the Chiefs, then Jets, then Ravens. My fandom wants the Jets. And I'll tell you another thing...

I WANT REX RYAN! I WANT REX RYAN!

PATS WIN PRE-POST-SEASON GAME

This game felt like the preseason. Even the weather was warm, at least for January. There was nothing at stake, a few players didn't even dress (Welker, Branch, Hernandez), and the starters weren't expected to play the full 60 minutes.

I approved of Bill Belichick's usage of Tom Brady and other key players in this game. The more worrisome Pats fans out there were concerned that there'd be a repeat of last year's Welker injury. But with a first round bye secured, it's kind of silly to sit players for 3 weeks.

I'm sure the practices weren't as rigorous this past week. And when Brady was in the game, the play-calling was run heavy, and there were few long passes. He got hit a few times. But survived.

Danny Woodhead may have suffered a concussion. He may not have. As of now, the Pats are only saying he has a "head injury."

BJG Ellis surpassed the 1,000 yard mark. I'm convinced that Belichick went for it on 4th & 16, just so Ellis could reach 1,000, then be pulled from the game. Ellis is the Pats' first 1,000 yard rusher since Corey Dillon in '04. His contributions this season have been invaluable.



There were many positives to take from this game, but much like after a big preseason win, it's important to keep things in perspective. Julian Edelman's afternoon, for instance, was world class. Will he do that against an elite team, that's playing an important game? It's difficult to gauge performances in a game like this.



The Patriots have 2 weeks off, and will host a Divisional Round game on Sunday the 16th, at 4:30 PM. They'll play either the Jets, Ravens, or Chiefs. Here are the scenarios:

The Patriots will play the Jets if the Jets beat the Colts on Saturday. No matter what happens in the other AFC playoff game. If the Jets win, they come up to Foxborough as the 6th seed. Simple as that.

If the Jets lose, then the Patriots will play the winner of the Ravens/Chiefs game, which will be played Sunday afternoon.

Photo Credits:
AP Photo